West Australian property investors... it was great while it lasted.
It may not be quite doomsday, but according to a leading national analyst, it looks like the good times in Perth's housing market are about to come to an end.
Industry analyst and economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel has stated in its Residential Property Prospects 2015-18, that the Australian and Perth housing markets will slow by 2017 but reports of "doomsday are likely to be overblown".
BIS Shrapnel squarely points the finger at the mining sector for Perth's falling property prices, highlighting that lower employment and migration would influence the local property market.
The research forecasts Perth's median house and unit prices would drop by 3 per cent in three years' time - or a fall of 10 per cent in real terms.
After a 16 per cent rise in the two years leading up to June 2014, Perth's median house price has declined by 3 per cent in 2014-15, to an estimated $580,000 as of June 2015.
BIS Shrapnel senior manager and study author Angie Zigoman said although low interest rates would support the market, supply and demand would influence any price growth.
Mr Zigoman said purchaser demand was tapering off, with demand across first home buyers, subsequent home buyers and investors all starting to weaken.
"Perth's median house price is forecast to continue to fall over 2015-16 and 2016-17 and stabilise in 2017-18 when mining investment is expected to bottom out.
"The corresponding decline in new residential construction is expected to see the market also move back toward balance around this time."
The report stated population growth nationally was also beginning to slow.
Net overseas migration has fallen from a recent peak of 235,700 in 2012-13 to an estimated 184,000 in calendar 2014.
Mr Zigomanis said the slowdown in net overseas migration was most evident in the mining states WA, Queensland and Northern Territory.
"With the majority of net overseas migration classified as long-term overseas visitors, that is, temporary but not permanent arrivals, this reduction will impact more on the rental sector," he said.
