Well, they were right. All of those boffins, talking heads, forecasters and crystal-ball gazers. They told us, but we didn't listen. And now, the crash is coming.
Why didn't we listen? We had our chance. We ignored them. Laughed at them. Mocked them for their predictions of doom. Well, most of us did.
Some people actually listened. Took their words to heart. Sold everything. Bought gold. Got out of the market and positioned themselves beautifully for the fall that's coming.
Why couldn't we be them? We had the chance. We read the alarming claims. The experts told us what to do. All we had to do was follow their advice.
And now, the crash is coming.
Me and my optimism. My expectations for better things ahead. Where has that got me? Where, I ask you? The answers were all in front of me. The headlines. The rationale. All I had to do was listen.
Stand by
I mean, it's coming. At some point. That much is inevitable. As sure as God made little green apples, markets rise and fall. Boom and bust. Soar and, well, crash.
There is nothing more certain than that a crash is coming.
And every day that passes since the last crash takes us a day closer to the next one. By definition.
Oh, you want to know when?
Well, Professor Steve Keen, whose intellect and insights I have a lot of time for, has been predicting a house price crash for well over a decade. Rarely a week goes past without someone saying prices 'may' or 'could' fall??? sometime soon.
18 months ago, RBS told us to sell everything.
In 2015, we were told that there's be an 80 per cent stockmarket fall in 2016.
Oops.
It's not a new phenomenon, of course. In the wake of the GFC, US investor John Hussman famously shorted the market, waiting for a double-dip recession. Which never came.
It sounds smart enough ...
And, by God, doesn't pessimism sound smart. It sounds thoughtful. Reasoned. As opposed to that Pollyanna optimism.
Now, I respect those people greatly. They are very smart people, with very thoughtful rationale. I've had the opportunity to chat with Professor Keen many times. He knows his stuff. And his insights are always interesting.
Here's an unpopular opinion, though: we fete those who correctly 'call' market crashes, as though they have some special insight. We try to learn from them, sure that we can avoid the next one.
Now, maybe they were not only right, but right for the right reasons. Maybe they can tell us when the next crash is coming, too. Or maybe they were right - and lucky.
Let's say you have 100 people crowded around a roulette table. Eventually, someone guesses the number the little white ball comes to rest against. The table erupts in cheers. You've found our sage - the person who who can forecast the roulette wheel.
People buy her drinks. Ask her the secret. She might even have one - or she thinks she does.
She was undoubtedly 'right'. But was it for the right reasons?
Eventually one of those headlines of doom will be right. And the thousands of wrong forecasts will be forgotten. We will have our new hero. Our new genius. Our new soothsayer.
The queen is dead. Long live the queen.
And that crash? The ASX is up 80 per cent (plus dividends) since 2009. No double-dip recession. The ASX gained 7 per cent in 2016, not quite the 80 per cent loss that was predicted. And I don't need to tell you what house prices have done during the last decade.
Oops.
If I call the toss of a coin, you'd call me lucky. If 1000 people try to call the toss of a coin 10 times, it's probable someone guesses all 10 correctly. They're still lucky. And if you ask 100 people to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar, the winner isn't lauded as some prescient expert.
Again, sometimes the person that calls a crash might be right. But good luck knowing in advance which guy to listen to. And the chance that they're also right next time? Not high.
Foolish takeaway
All of that said, I mean what I wrote at the top. A crash truly is coming. But no-one really knows when.
More importantly, the trajectory of the stock market - based on more than a century of history - is clearly up, albeit with the occasional pullback.
For 99 per cent of people, do you think the money is made in harnessing that growth, or in trying to find the crash 'needle' in the market's haystack?
Yes, the crash is coming. It'll be painful. But my money - both literally and figuratively - is on those occasional slides being truly dwarfed by the long-term gains. The rest, unfortunately, is noise.
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Scott Phillips is the Motley Fool's director of research. You can follow Scott on Twitter @TMFScottP. The Motley Fool's purpose is to educate, amuse and enrich investors. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691).
